Malcolm Offord, the leader of Reform UK in Scotland, has stated that a second Scottish independence referendum is “a long way off.” Offord’s assertion comes in response to the Scottish government’s recent publication of a draft independence referendum bill, which outlines the proposed question and eligibility criteria for voters. Offord emphasizes that a significant “groundswell” of support for a new referendum would be necessary, noting that in the 2014 independence vote, 55% of Scots voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, while 45% favored independence.
Offord argues that the current level of support for independence falls far short of the threshold required for a credible referendum. He points out that in the 2014 referendum, 2 million people voted to stay in the UK, compared to 1.6 million who voted for independence. Furthermore, Offord highlights a decline in the pro-independence voting bloc, citing a reduction from 1.6 million in 2014 to below 1 million in the most recent Holyrood election. He contends that such a level of support is insufficient to justify breaking up the country, suggesting that a mandate for independence would require more than 2 million voters in favor. Offord also notes that successive UK governments, including the current one, have opposed any further referendums, with Downing Street recently declaring a new vote “off limits.”